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Trump-Clinton Presidential Election

The polls’ relative inaccuracy in predicting the winner of the 2016 presidential election has fueled significant skepticism regarding political polling.


Polls in the 2016 election heavily favored Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. The final poll average had Clinton up 47.3% to Trump’s 42%. The New York Times had Clinton at a 91% chance of winning based on polls. The RealClear poll average had Clinton winning by 3.2% the day before the election. However, Trump defied predictions from most polling averages by winning the electoral vote 306-232. Some analysts have theorized that this polling failure could be from an excessive number of Trump voters refusing to announce their support to pollsters. Another potential cause was a lack of diversity in random samplings.